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NTPC Limited

Ref: NTPC/ Comml/ EOI/ 2017-18/ 01 22.12.2017

Invitation for Expression of Interest for Electricity Demand Forecasting

1. Introduction

NTPC is the largest power generating company in India with current installed

capacity of 51708 MW located at various parts of the country. NTPC supplies

electricity to almost all the states and UTs of the country.

Through the Electricity Demand Forecasting exercise, NTPC wants to assess

the expected scheduling by the states from the dispatchable generating stations

in different time horizons as detailed below.

2. Expression of Interest

NTPC invites Expression of Interest from interested parties to carry out the

estimation of electricity demand of different states and the expected supply to

be made available from renewable energy sources, which will be used to

estimate the expected scheduling from NTPC stations. Interested parties may

provide the inputs in the format attached below.

3. Expected outcome/ results of the exercise:

a) Forecast in three time horizons.

i) On day-ahead basis, 96 block wise expected schedules for the next 7

days (to be available by 10 am of D-2)

- eg. For the next 7 days period, the 96 block-wise demand forecast will

be made available by 10 AM of (D-2)th day. So everyday at 10 AM, a

report with the expected 96 block-wise schedules for the next 7 days

will be made available.

ii) On month-ahead basis, daily demand for the next 3 months (by 1

every month for M+1, M+2 & M+3).

- eg. By 1

of December, the demand will be made available for the

months of January, February and March. Similarly, by 1

date of every

month, daily demands for the next three months will be made available.

iii) On year-ahead basis, monthwise for the next 5 years (by 31

March of

every year for Y+1, Y+2, Y+3, Y+4, Y+5).

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- eg. By 31

March of 2018, monthly demand will be made available for

the years FY 2018-19, 2019-20 and 2020-21. Similarly, by 31

March

of every year, monthly demands for the next five years will be made

available.

b) Approach to be followed for the expected results:

The assignment will entail development of statistical models for all the

major States of the country. The modelling exercise is expected to

produce the following:

i) Total Expected Demand of the State to be met.

ii) Expected supply from Renewables & other must run sources.

iii) Net power, the state is expected to source from competitive sources

(Diff. of i) and ii) ).

4. Proposal invited from interested parties clearly mentioning the following:

a) Capabilities of the party for such exercise; past experience etc.

The vendor will submit information regarding any such assignment or similar

assignment involving development of such models, undertaken by it

recently.

b) Methodology & tools used.

- The methodology to be followed and various tools to be used by the

vendors will be informed, such as:

- Description of the model/ combination of models to be used

- Capability of self-learning feature of the model.

- Use of machine learning/ artificial intelligence based models

- Requirement of data: data requirement for the exercise will be defined

clearly by the vendor including the following:

 Historical data requirement

 Type and structure of data

 Periodicity of the data

 Source of data.

- The vendor will also mention whether the data is available with them or

the same will be sourced from public source or procured from authorised

sources/ statutory authorities.

- Vendor is expected to take care of the data and other requirements and

provide the outputs in the form of various reports as described above.

c) Expected accuracy

- The vendor will mention the expected accuracy of the output.

- Further requirements for improvement of the accuracy will be clearly

spelt out, which may include:

o Additional data requirement

o Estimated time period, particularly with models having self-

learning features.

o Any other requirement

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d) Phasing of work:

The work is proposed to be completed in the following manner:

i) Phase I: Phase I of the assignment will be a Pilot Study for one state.

The vendor can choose the state.

ii) Phase II – In Phase II, this will expanded to the Region where the State

chosen for Pilot study is located.

iii) Phase III – In Phase III, the exercise will be expanded to all the other

states.

e) Time required for completion of the entire exercise will be mentioned by the

vendor. The same can be mentioned under the following broad heads for all

the phases of work as outlined above:

o data collection

o development of model

o testing of the model

o training and fine-tuning of the model

o complete roll out.

f) Infrastructure requirement:

Vendor will specify the infrastructure/support requirement, which may

include the following:

o Hardware

o Software

o Storage-Cloud?

o Involvement of NTPC executives

o Data support

o others

g) Post- delivery Support – the mechanism for Maintenance and support for

this exercise such as annual maintenance arrangements, requirement of

support for fine-tuning of the models on a continuous basis, continuous

data upgradation etc. will be mentioned.

h) Approx. estimated cost

The vendor will provide the approx. estimated cost with break-up of cost

for different activities. The break of up the cost may include the following:

o Data availability

o Cost of development of base models

o Fine tuning of the model

o Adjusting the model to take care of the state specific factors

o IT infrastructure- Hardware and Software

o Any other cost element

i) Any other point

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5. Proposed Road map for implementation

a) After receiving the responses from vendors, NTPC will follow a process of

Limited Tenders for awarding this assignment.

b) The Scope of Work, Terms of Reference, Eligibility criteria and other

modalities of the Limited Tender will be decided based on the response of

6. Timeline: Vendors are required to submit their response to the various points

mentioned at point no. 4 by 15

January 2018.

7. Interested vendors can submit their response to this EOI at the following

address within the mentioned timeline:

GM (Commercial), NTPC Limited

Core-6, 6

Floor, Scope Complex

7, Institutional Area, Lodhi Road

New Delhi - 110003

The same can also be mailed to: armohanty@ntpc.co.in

Disclaimer:

This Expression of Interest (EOI) may not be considered as a binding agreement

between NTPC and the parties who are participating in this EOI. Consequent to the

Expression of interest, based on the responses received, Limited Tender process will

be followed. There will not be any claim on either parties based on the submissions

made in this Expression of Interest.